RECORD OF MTSPs SUB-GROUP MEETING – 11 AUGUST 2005
| Present: | ||
Seamus McAleavey (Chair) |
NICVA |
|
Jim McCusker |
NIC/ICTU |
|
Michael Maguire |
Institute of Directors |
|
Bob Barbour |
Centre for Competitiveness |
|
Raymond Mullan |
Further Education |
|
Nigel Smyth |
CBI |
|
Graeme Hutchinson |
DETI Economics Division |
|
Richard Johnston |
DETI Economics Division |
|
Stephen Moore |
DETI Economics Division |
John Gilliland |
UFU |
Minutes of Sub-Group meeting on 20 January 2005
1. The minutes of the previous meeting were agreed, without amendment.
Monitoring Arrangements and ‘Vision’ Framework
2. Members discussed the draft terms of reference for the monitoring work to be undertaken by Regional Forecasts Ltd and the proposal that the economic indicators in the revised Medium Term Strategic Priorities (MTSPs) framework be mapped across from the seven MTSPs areas to the four productivity driver areas of the Economic Vision for Northern Ireland.
3. During discussion on the draft terms of reference, the following points were clarified:
– Four departments, DETI, DEL, DFP and OFMDFM would share the costs of commissioning Regional Forecasts Ltd;
– Regional Forecasts Ltd are the only organisation that can deliver the proposed terms of reference, particularly the required forecasts for the NI economy, and that Central Procurement Directorate advice and procedures for commissioning work from a sole supplier are being followed closely.
4. During discussion on the proposed ‘Vision’ framework, the following points were agreed:
– The MTSPs framework indicators should be mapped across from the seven MTSPs areas to the four productivity driver areas of the Economic Vision for Northern Ireland and used to monitor the performance of the Northern Ireland economy;
– The proposed allocation of the ‘low income measure’ indicator to ‘Intermediate Objectives’; &
– The proposed allocation of indicators to the Innovation, Enterprise and Skills productivity driver areas.
5. Members expressed some concerns about the proposals for the infrastructure driver area and agreed that:
– The ‘number of jobs created through inward investment’ and ‘job quality’ should be allocated to the Enterprise productivity driver area; and
– ‘Changes in employment of people from TSN areas’ should be allocated to the Skills productivity driver area.
6. Members also asked that a check is carried out to ensure that the indicators are still consistent and aligned with the objectives and targets in current Government strategies (e.g. DEL’s Skills Strategy and Invest NI’s Corporate Plan).
ACTION: DETI Economists to gather comparative indicators from Corporate plans, skills strategy etc and compare with indicator framework.
7. Members queried whether Regional Forecasts’ forecasting model could predict the impact on the ‘Goals’ of Government investment in the four productivity driver areas and agreed that a ‘Government investment’ indicator, one in each of the productivity driver areas, might be useful.
ACTION: DETI Economists to discuss with Regional Forecasts Ltd whether a Government investment indicator could be included in each of the four productivity driver areas.
8. Members agreed that the proposed ‘Vision’ framework should be put to each of the Vision Sub-groups and that they should be asked to consider the indicators allocated to their productivity driver area and advise DETI of any additional indicators that might be considered.
ACTION: EDF Secretariat to forward the proposed ‘Vision’ framework to the Vision Sub-groups as soon as possible for their consideration and comments.
Scenario Planning and Target Setting
9. Members discussed whether Regional Forecasts should be required to forecast to 2010 or 2015 and agreed that forecasts should be required to 2015 but, as it was a significant milestone, the position at 2010 should also be clearly established.
10. Members discussed the development of scenarios and agreed that the specialist knowledge of the four Vision Sub-groups meant they were in the best position to identify realistic scenarios for Regional Forecasts Ltd. Members also discussed the need for co-ordination, control and oversight and noted that it was also possible some additional scenarios might be developed which had no direct relationship with the Vision productivity drivers. It was agreed that EDF might therefore need a further Sub-group whose remit would include responsibility for overseeing / monitoring / controlling the flow of scenarios to Regional Forecasts Ltd.
ACTION: EDF Secretariat to forward the MTSPs Sub-group views on scenario setting to the Vision Sub-groups and request they start to develop scenarios for submission to Regional Forecasts through DETI.
11. Members discussed the need for and value in an annual statement from the Forum and noted the Forum had committed to monitor performance against the targets detailed in Working Together for a Stronger Economy. It was agreed that an annual EDF statement should be published, even if this was only a short summary of the position and only published on the Forum’s website.
ACTION: EDF Secretariat to draft an annual statement once sufficient data is available.
12. As highlighted above, it was agreed that whilst the bulk of scenario identification work should be undertaken by the four Vision sub-groups, a further Sub-group was still needed to oversee / monitor / control the flow of scenarios to Regional Forecasts Ltd. Such a Sub-group might also oversee monitoring of the NI economy and it was agreed that this MTSPs Sub-group might remain in existence to fulfil these roles, but change its name to reflect current circumstances.
13. It was agreed that the next meetings might take place in October and / or November, depending on the progress of the ‘Vision’ Sub-groups and Regional Forecasts Ltd.
ACTION: EDF Secretariat to arrange meetings as required.