MINUTES OF MTSPs SUB-GROUP MEETING – 30 OCTOBER 2006

 

Present:

 

Seamus McAleavey (Chair)

NICVA

Jim McCusker

NIC/ICTU

Michael Maguire

Institute of Directors

Raymond Mullan

Further Education

Michael Brennan

DFP

Peter Jakobsen

DFP

William Dickson

DFP

Graeme Hutchinson

DETI

Richard Johnston

DETI

Edel Lamb

DETI

Neil Gibson

Regional Forecasts

 

Apologies:

 

John Gilliland

UFU

Nigel Smyth

CBI

 

Minutes of Sub-Group meetings

 

1.              Members agreed that they were content with the minutes of the 26 July 2006 meeting.

 

Review of Action Points from 26 July 2006 meeting

 

2.              The chair reported that there were no action points arising from the last meeting.

 

Regional Forecasts Ltd – Monitoring & Forecasts

 

3.              Neil Gibson referred members to the final report produced by Regional Forecasts and gave a presentation highlighting the key findings of the report.

 

4.              He noted that Regional Forecasts had developed a unique model and that this could be updated annually.  He advised that comments and feedback on the report would be welcomed, both at the meeting and in the future.

 

5.              The presentation highlighted what had been produced by Regional Forecasts, its Goals and the ways in which the model had incorporated EDF’s indicators.

 

6.              The presentation also highlighted that the way forward should be to incorporate further research, to set targets for the NI economy, to publicise the findings and to use the report and update it annually.  Neil Gibson noted that house prices and migration that would impact on updated forecasts.  He advised that new forecasting would be available in Spring 2007.

 

7.              Following the presentation, members agreed that the report was a useful source of information.  However, they also raised a number of issues:

 

–         It was noted that the report gave no indication of the costs of achieving improvement.

 

–         The benefits and disadvantages of measuring the NI economy against the UK were discussed.  Possible alternatives (such as, measuring in the improvement of the economy in absolute terms or in relation to other regions) were also debated.  Members agreed that it was useful to have some point of comparison while attending to improvement in absolute terms.

 

8.              The Chair reminded members that this was Regional Forecasts’ final report and members agreed to sign off on the work.

 

RES Targets

 

9.              Michael Brennan updated members on the Regional Economic Strategy (RES).  He advised members that DFP had received feedback from Treasury, who had indicated that they did not want to commit to targets.  However, DFP advised that it was their view that aspirations should be included in the RES.

 

10.           Members agreed on the importance of monitoring indicators in the RES.  Discussion focused on what indicators could be usefully included.  It was agreed that EDF’s indicators could be usefully incorporated into the Strategy.

 

11.           The need to think realistically about targets / aspirations was also stressed and the benefits and disadvantages of indicators relative to the UK were debated further in relation to this item.

 

ACTION:         DFP to provide a summary set of high-level indicators / targets that would be discussed at the December EDF plenary meeting.

 

Annual Statement

 

12.           Members recognised the commitment given in Working Together for a Stronger Economy to monitor the performance of the economy on an annual basis and agreed that it was important to release an annual statement in the near future.

 

13.           It was agreed that the information and forecasts could form the basis of an annual statement but it was noted that it was important that EDF agree on a position in relation to this information before releasing its statement.

 

14.           It was agreed that the report should be published to the DETI website immediately as the first step in publicising the findings.  It was also agreed that an online presentation of chapter 4’s charts and comments on the EDF website would be useful.

 

15.           However, members suggested that the issue of an annual statement should be raised at a plenary EDF meeting before any further decisions were made.  It was agreed that DETI economists would produce a brief synopsis of the report that would form the basis of a paper to be presented by Seamus McAleavey at the next plenary meeting.  This paper should present the various arguments and highlight the challenges coming from the report and how this might impact on future policy development.

 

16.           Members also agreed that a press release should follow discussion of the annual statement at plenary EDF.

 

17.           It was agreed that the key issue is that EDF must take a stance on how the economy may be improved and ultimately produce a paper for government advising on the implications for policy.

 

          ACTION:             EDF Secretariat to arrange publication of Regional Forecasts’ report on DETI’s website and presentation of Chapter 4 on EDF’s website.

 

          ACTION:             DETI Economists along with EDF Secretariat to produce a brief synopsis of the report for the MTSPs Chair.

 

          ACTION:             EDF Secretariat to invite EDF Sub-Group Chairs to consider including a discussion of the annual statement on the agenda for the plenary meeting on 5 December 2006.

 

Any Other Business

 

18.           The Chair reminded members that at an MTSPs meeting earlier this year, it was agreed that a letter would be sent to the Statistician in charge of the ONS E-Commerce survey asking them to boost the NI sample which would allow the publication of NI data.  It was also agreed that a letter would be sent to Fiona Hepper asking for DETI to carry out a Venture Capital Survey.  Members agreed that the Chair should write to ONS and DETI.

 

Dates of Next Meeting

 

19.               Next meeting to be held in late January.  Exact date to be advised by EDF Secretariat.