RECORD OF MTSPs SUB-GROUP MEETING – 26 JULY 2006

Present:

Seamus McAleavey (Chair)	NICVA
Bob Barbour	Centre for Competitiveness
Jim McCusker	NIC/ICTU
Michael Maguire	Institute of Directors
Nigel Smyth	CBI
Raymond Mullan	Further Education
Shane Murphy	DFP
Peter Jakobsen	DFP
Richard Johnston	DETI
Stephen Moore	DETI

Apologies:

John Gilliland

UFU

Minutes of Sub-Group meetings

1. One amendment was made to the draft minutes of the meeting held on 24 March 2006. The amendment is highlighted in italics.

Public sector employment: NI public sector employment to be reported relative to total NI employment and compared to the public sector share of total employment in the UK. It was also agreed a UK public sector forecast should be added to the model. The trade union representative indicated that his sector would have preferred to use the ratio of the number employed in the public services to the total population.

Review of Action Points from 24 March meeting

2. Stephen Moore reported that all action points had been addressed or would be progressed through the agenda on this meeting.

Regional Forecasts Ltd – Monitoring & Forecasts

3. Stephen Moore referred members to paper 2, which contains Regional Forecasts’ findings on the performance of the NI economy against the Forum’s Vision monitoring framework and Regional Forecasts’ forecasts for the framework’s indicators to 2015.

4. Stephen reminded members that the Forum had given a commitment in Working Together for a Stronger Economy to monitor the performance of the economy on an annual basis and published a first annual statement on progress in 2004. He also noted the Forum must now decide whether it wants to issue another statement based on the information and forecasts contained within Regional Forecasts’ report.

5. Members noted that they had reservations about some of the reasoning behind some of Regional Forecasts’ forecasts. They sought and received assurances that when Regional Forecasts’ report is published it would be clear that the views expressed are those of the authors.

6. Members queried whether DETI and DFP were content with the monitoring data and the forecasts in the report. DETI and DFP representatives noted both departments were content with the monitoring data and most of the forecasts. In relation to the forecasts, the departments explained that some clarification is required on a number of forecasts, which the departments would discuss with Regional Forecasts in the near future.

7. Members queried how the report might be used, particularly in the context of the development of the Regional Economic Strategy. DETI representatives responded the main benefits of Regional Forecasts’ monitoring and modelling work are that it provides a broad and robust knowledge base on which to monitor the NI economy. They also noted the model enables a comparison to be made with other regions and the RoI and, with the caveat that data must be available and linkages clearly understood, provides a forecasting capability that could be used to inform target setting.

8. DETI representatives reported that development work during the year on public expenditure, exports and productivity had improved the functionality and usefulness of the model as a policy development tool. They also reported that the key findings of the work were that the NI economy is successful in generating employment but that the challenge is now in raising productivity. In particular, the report reveals how NI is under represented in high value added financial and business services and highlights the importance of inward investment and R&D for economic growth. On skills, the report details that skills levels are steadily increasing and higher numbers of graduates are staying in NI, but this is tempered by the fact that private sector wages are not increasing above trend, suggesting a degree of underemployment.

Scenario Planning

9. DETI representatives tabled a paper setting out a number of possible scenarios that could now be run on the model. DETI also suggested that these scenarios might be shaped / approved by the relevant Vision Sub-groups

10. Members noted the relevance of this scenario planning work to the work of the NI Assembly Sub-group that is currently examining the economic challenges facing Northern Ireland. They expressed frustration that scenario capabilities of model were not sufficiently developed to allow this scenario work to inform the work of the Sub-group.

11. It was noted that the scenario work was of particular importance and, to speed up the process, it was agreed that the MTSPs Sub-group would select a first batch of DETI’s suggested scenarios, which would not be referred to relevant Vision Sub-groups for consideration. The following discussion the following scenarios were agreed:

– Employees in tradable services (% of total employment) to increase to 5% of total employment by 2015;

– Total VAT registrations (per 10,000 businesses) to increase to the UK level by 2015;

– Number of jobs created through inward investment to increase to 3,000 per annum to 2015;

– Business Expenditure on R&D (as % of GVA) to increase to 70% of the UK level by 2015;

– Percentage of the working age population qualified to at least level 3 to increase to 55% of the WA population by 2015;

– Percentage of the working age population qualified to at least level 4 to increase to 30% of the WA population by 2015.

12. It was agreed that this first batch of scenarios should be run as soon as possible and the MTSPs Sub-group should meet again to discuss, as soon as results are available.

Annual Statement

13. This item was postponed for discussion at the next MTSPs meeting.

Any Other Business

14. None.

Dates of Next Meeting

15. To be advised by EDF Secretariat.